One year after the gruesome incident of setting fire to a carriage of the Sabarmati Express at Godhra station in Gujarat killing 58 Karsevaks, and the unprecedented fire-storm of communal violence that followed this incident in which nearly a thousand Muslim were killed, it is time to take stock of the communal vulnerabilities here and elsewhere. The past year has witnessed a marked increase in divisive trends and sectarian tendencies. Communal politics is becoming almost de-rigueur in many instances. In some parts of the country communal politics is even beginning to supplant caste politics. Religious extremism is undermining many of the values this nation has cherished. The idea of a pluralist society is seemingly under threat.

2. A serious attempt has not been made to analyse whether the rise in communal temperature is the outcome of perceptions informed by prejudice and circumstance, a systemic disease, or an aberration. The litany of charges and counter-charges traded almost on a day to day basis shed little light on this. Blame and responsibility for whipping up of sectarian passions is determined not on facts, but on community bias and circumstance. Official agencies do record the growth-curve of communally-linked violence, but are not in a position to evaluate the extent to which this has damaged the nation's secular fabric. No empirical data is also available as to why all of a sudden religious extremism has become the single biggest cause for violent conflict among people of different communities.

3. The Gujarat riots of February-March 2002 are seen by many as having led to the increased vulnerabilities. This may well be so. It can be said with greater certainty, however, that after the Gujarat riots the ground realities affecting communal violence have undergone a fundamental change. Comparisons with past communal riots can hence be patently unrealistic. The communal riots of early 2002 caused a tectonic upheaval, and which was on a scale seldom seen previously. The reverberations of this continue to be felt to this day, not only in Gujarat but elsewhere as well. Figures of fatalities or of those injured, hardly reflect the intensity of the smouldering hatred on display during the riots. Previous communal riots seldom witnessed this kind of calculated and calibrated violence. The riots have set in motion a new trend of mega-violence, which may well becoming a pattern for future communal conflicts.

4. The killing of Karsevaks and the subsequent riots were both carefully orchestrated and followed a pre-determined design. Organisations, rather than individuals, were seen to take the lead in both instances. Another disturbing aspect this time was the overwhelming sense of fear among the minorities, which had a strong ripple effect across the country. Several months after the riots, these fears are still to subside.

5. Hindu-Muslim tensions have metastasised. Newer areas and hitherto unaffected sections are now in the grip of communal hatred. Tensions are more palpable today, and are becoming more widespread. Morphing of communal bodies is taking place. Organisations of both the majority and minority communities have become very adept at exploring and utilising opportunities for intensifying violence once a riot occurs. The rubric of secularism is thus coming under severe strain.

6. The moot point is whether those in charge are properly conversant with the magnitude of the danger posed by present-day communalism. Unlike in the past, the vast majority of communal incidents is being orchestrated by fundamentalist organisations which are gaining in importance. Hindu fundamentalist bodies like the VHP and the Bajrang Dal appear more or less out of control. Their campaigns are heavily accented on raising levels of communal tension. The VHP-led Dharam Sansad held late last month had threatened to create a 'hundred Gujarats in different parts of the country'. It warned that 'what happened in Gujarat would happen everywhere'. A few speakers harped on 'loyalty rites'' to prove that 'Hindu blood flowed in their veins' while condemning 'jehadi' terrorism. The VHP's Praveen Togadia has declared virtual war on the minorities. The dharnas, demonstrations, and religious marches which the Dharam Sansad proposes to conduct over the next several weeks, are potentially incendiary. Meanwhile, tensions over issues such as Ayodhya and 'cow slaughter' are steadily rising. The inherent risk of a communal backlash on both counts is greater today than a year ago.

7. Extremist organisations belonging to the Muslim community may appear less vocal, but evidence is available of their preparations to meet 'force with force', as also to 'take on' the majority. The more extremist Muslim organisations are understood to have taken a decision to resort to more violence in all future communal situations. Steps are being taken by them to build a bigger cadre of militant supporters. Some more militant organisations are also to be raised. Efforts to link up with the Islamist diaspora outside the country are being strengthened.

8. Concerted action from the side of the authorities has been severely limited. Opposition parties are equally at fault, merely limiting themselves to assailing the Government for its pursuit of a 'divisive communal agenda'. No constructive suggestions have emerged from either the Government or the Opposition. The Chief Minister's Conference on Internal Security should have been the forum for unveiling a public diplomacy offensive, but it made only a cursory reference to the increasing sectarian dangers. Absence of a coherent response, and lack of innovative measures, may adversely affect the battle against communalism.

9. Defeating 21st Century Fanaticism is far more difficult than was dealing with fanaticism in the 20th. A change in methods will be needed. Provision will have to be made to ensure adequate space to the different groups. Efforts will be needed to overcome the prevailing 'negativism' that seems to have taken hold of the polity. Ending sharp divisions in society, including among the intelligentsia, whenever sectarian issues are discussed, and enshrining of secular ideas and concepts are important. Solely depending on strong administration action will not be enough.

10. Communal harmony needs to be elevated to the level of a practicing doctrine. Secularisation i.e. the practice of secularism and strengthening of inter-faith dialogue must be actively pursued. Steps must be taken to protect our heritage from those who live in the past, as also from those who are at war with modernity and modern values. As the President observed during his Address to the Joint Session of Parliament in February this year, 'we must promote an atmosphere of mutual understanding, goodwill and accommodation'.

11. Winning 'the struggle for hearts and minds' should hence have priority. The steady drum-beat of criticism that is being resorted to today will not achieve anything. Ways and means have to be found to bring moderates into the mainstream and strengthen their position in society. This is as true of the majority Hindu as of the minority Muslim community. A situation already exists in the case of the latter wherein moderates are being relegated to the political margins. This may soon become the case with the Hindu majority as well. This is need for properly thought out actions at this moment rather than motivated advice or suggestions for social and religious re-engineering.

12. The growing influence of communal organisations and the contradictions of civil society pose a serious problem for the polity. The challenges come from disparate sources. The challenge is as much of ideas as of consequences. No easy triumphs are available. There is need for better understanding of grass roots social and religious movements. We also need to understand the true nature and character of the forces weakening our institutions and undermining societal cohesion. Emotional responses should be eschewed and a consistent and cautious approach adopted at all times.

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