It may be exaggerated, but the fear is real: will there be a nuclear war between India and Pakistan? Despite Delhi and Islamabad giving assurances that they would not be the first to initiate a war, the continuing standoff between them in the face of diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis has kept the fear alive.

The three missile tests by Pakistan over the last two weeks have symbolic as well as strategic significance, which unmistakably convey the impression of its will and motivation to deploy and strike in the event of its criticality. The question is, if Pakistan strikes, how and where will it strike? More importantly, what are the scenarios that could lead to it?

The most possible scenario in an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange would open with India's Strike Corps along the international border and on the Line of Control (LoC). This would open a front on the International Boundary Line (IBL) and sustain an assault along the LoC in a manner that will swing the Pakistani forces to corresponding manoeuvres. India's conventional thrust would be met with a formidable counter-offensive by Pakistan. Indian responses could be in a joint forces assault along the IBL, deploying its formidable Jaguar and Mirage 2000 squadrons in counter armour and interdiction assaults, paving way for a substantial bridgehead for Indian forces to drive in a salami style operation. Such a thrust would have a limited deterrent effect on Pakistan. And it would retaliate with its nuclear missile matrix. The opening nuclear gambit by Pakistan could be the firing of a low yield nuclear weapon in the range of 0.5kt to 10kt known as Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW). Suitable for battlefield strikes against armoured columns, it could be fired as nuclear artillery, or by short range missiles or air delivered munitions on the advancing Indian columns. Such a nuclear shot would obviously incinerate the two or more Indian divisions advancing into Pakistani territory in an attempt to envelop the Pakistani forces.

rest of the article is at http://www.newindpress.com/sunday/sundayitems.asp?id=SEH20020608072832&eTitle=Cover+Story&rLink=0

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